All five mega-cap tech names reported Q1 earnings this past week, and the headline number is staggering: combined 2026 AI capital expenditure guidance now exceeds $650 billion. Amazon leads at ~$200B, Microsoft ~$190B, Alphabet $180-190B (raised from $175-185B), Meta $125-145B (raised from $115-135B), and Apple a comparatively modest ~$9B. This capex arms race is the single most material datapoint for the entire AI supply chain — semis, networking, power, cooling — for the rest of 2026.
Meta beat Q1 estimates (EPS $7.31 vs $6.79 est, revenue $56.3B +33% YoY) but shares sank ~7% after-hours as the company hiked its 2026 capex range to $125-145B from $115-135B, citing higher component costs and future data center capacity. Simultaneously, Meta announced it's laying off ~10% of its workforce (~8,000 employees) and canceling 6,000 open roles. The market read: strong results, but AI spending is accelerating faster than even bulls expected.
Nvidia slid ~4% Thursday to ~$201 as the market digested dual threats from hyperscaler custom silicon. Amazon noted its in-house Trainium chips business is "booming," while Alphabet said it will sell custom Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) directly to external data center customers — a first. Nvidia still holds elite margins (71% gross, 60% operating) and is up 84% over the past year, but the rotation into competitors is real. Stock back above $5 trillion market cap after a six-month absence, but facing its most credible competitive headwinds yet.
Palantir publishes Q1 2026 results after the close today (May 4). Wall Street expects revenue of $1.54B (+74% YoY) and EPS of $0.28 (+115%). The stock is down ~20% YTD and sits 31% below its November 2025 all-time high of $207. RBC Capital renewed its bearish stance, warning of a second straight quarter of declining contract values and extreme valuation at ~50x 2026 revenue. Polymarket puts the odds of an EPS beat at 96% — the question is whether guidance and AIP adoption metrics satisfy the premium.
AMD skyrocketed 74.3% in April — its best monthly performance in years — driven by TSMC's blowout results confirming robust AI chip demand, a multi-year AI partnership with the French government, and Susquehanna raising its price target to $375 from $300 on April 29. Earnings land Tuesday after close, with Street expectations of $9.89B revenue (+33% YoY) and EPS of $1.29 (+34%). The MI350 accelerator line and data center GPU demand are the key watch items.
Alphabet's Q1 was the market's favorite report of the week. Google Cloud revenue soared 63% YoY, the company's backlog nearly doubled to $460 billion, and Alphabet raised 2026 capex guidance to $180-190B while signaling a "significant increase" in 2027. Notably, investors rewarded the spend — the market trusts Alphabet's AI ROI more than Meta's right now. Plans to sell TPUs externally add a new revenue stream but also pressure Nvidia.
Apple posted record Q2 revenue of $111.2B (+17% YoY), EPS of $2.01 (+22%), and guided June quarter revenue growth of 14-17%, well above estimates. iPhone 17 was called the "most popular lineup in history," with iPhone revenue hitting $57B (+22%). Services hit a record $31B (+16%, accelerating). The bombshell: Tim Cook announced he will step down as CEO on September 1, with hardware chief John Ternus succeeding him. Apple also confirmed a partnership with Google Gemini to power Siri.
Microsoft beat across the board (EPS $4.27 vs $4.06 est, revenue $77.6B +18.4% YoY) with Azure growing 40%. The headline number: commercial bookings surged 112% YoY, driven by Azure commitments from OpenAI and a growing number of $100M+ contracts. Azure AI Foundry now serves 80,000 customers including 80% of the Fortune 500. The catch: Microsoft expects to remain capacity-constrained through the end of FY2026, meaning demand is outrunning even $190B in planned capex.
SoundHound AI agreed to acquire LivePerson for $43M in equity, boosting its 2027 revenue target to $350-400M with ~$100M tagged as "growable" LivePerson customer contribution. Shares jumped ~7% on the news. SOUN reports Q1 earnings May 7 with analysts expecting ~$42.5M revenue (+46% YoY). The stock carries a Strong Buy consensus with a $14 target (~75% upside) but is still down ~18% YTD. The LivePerson deal adds enterprise conversational AI scale at a bargain price.
BigBear.ai reports Q1 on Monday May 5 after close, with analysts expecting revenue of ~$31-34M (down ~10% YoY) and a loss of $0.06/share. The stock is down ~23% YTD but has rallied 21% over the past month as investors position ahead of what many call the company's most consequential print since going public. The $250M Ask Sage acquisition (closed Dec 31) and its 100,000+ government users will be the focus — how much revenue it contributed in Q1 will shape the narrative.
