AI Stocks Week-Ahead — Sunday, July 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM

📅 AI Stocks Week-Ahead — Sunday, July 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM

Prior week recap: SPX +1.2% · NDX +1.7% · DJI -0.5%
A volatile, split week — chips got hammered mid-week on Samsung's disappointing earnings and a fresh narrative around Chinese AI chip alternatives to Nvidia, but a late-week tech rebound bailed out the SPX and NDX while the Dow lagged. NVDA shed roughly $1 trillion in market cap at the trough before recovering some ground; MSFT announced 4,800 job cuts in its Xbox and sales units; and SK Hynix staged a record $26.5B U.S. IPO — the largest ever by a semiconductor name.

Sunday futures: S&P modestly lower · Nasdaq modestly lower · Dow modestly lower
Two weekend catalysts are hitting simultaneously: U.S.-Iran fighting resumed after the June memorandum collapsed, Strait of Hormuz shipping has effectively ground to a halt as of July 10 (Lloyd's List Intelligence), and President Trump announced Saturday that Mexico faces 30% reciprocal tariffs effective August 1, with a 35% Canada threat also on the table. Oil prices held steady Friday but the Hormuz closure is a live supply-shock risk. Expect cautious Monday positioning, not a gap-down panic — markets have been living with Hormuz headlines for weeks.

Earnings this week:
• Tue, July 14 — JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Citigroup (all before open) — Q2 bank results; GS consensus ~$14.47 EPS (+32% YoY), JPM ~$5.44; treat as macro read, not watchlist names
• Wed, July 15 — ASML (before open) — Q2 results; revenue guide €8.4–9.0B, gross margin 51–52%; primary read on global AI capex cycle and EUV equipment demand
• Thu, July 16 — TSM (TSMC) — Q2 results; consensus EPS ~$3.81 (+54% YoY), revenue ~$40B; AI/HPC demand, CoWoS advanced packaging capacity, and 2nm ramp are the three watch points; TSM stock surged 39.9% in Q2

Economic calendar:
• Tue, July 14 — CPI (June), 8:30 AM ET: The week's inflation linchpin; expected to show modest moderation helped by June's 20%+ crude oil price decline, but tariff-driven goods prices could complicate the picture; this print lands the same morning as bank earnings and Warsh testimony — triple-catalyst Tuesday
• Wed, July 15 — PPI (June), 8:30 AM ET: Pipeline inflation read; watch for tariff pass-through in producer prices that could argue against summer rate relief
• Thu, July 16 — Advance Retail Sales (June), 8:30 AM ET: Consumer spending pulse; same day as TSMC and NFLX earnings — busy morning
• Fri, July 17 — UMich Consumer Sentiment (prelim, July), 10:00 AM ET: Forward-looking inflation expectations; more meaningful now that tariff anxiety is re-elevated

Fed events:
• Tue, July 14 — Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testifies before the House Financial Services Committee, 10:00 AM ET: First Warsh appearance since renewed Hormuz tensions and the Mexico tariff announcement; his inflation/rate-path framing will move bonds and tech simultaneously — this is the week's highest-impact Fed event
• Wed, July 15 — Warsh testifies before the Senate Banking Committee, 10:00 AM ET: Follow-up session; listen for any pivot in tone relative to Tuesday

Watchlist catalysts:
• TSM — Earnings Thursday, July 16; as primary foundry for NVDA, AMD, and Apple silicon, TSMC's AI/HPC demand commentary and any CoWoS capacity update is the single most important sector data point of the month
• ASML — Earnings Wednesday, July 15; EUV bookings and full-year guidance revision will signal whether the AI capex cycle is sustaining or plateauing; AVGO's soft June guidance makes this even more scrutinized
• NVDA — No earnings, but TSMC results are its closest proxy; stock lost ~$1T in market cap this week on Samsung miss + China alternative chip headlines; watch TSMC's N3/N2 customer demand commentary for NVDA-specific read-through
• AVGO — Recovering from ~15% post-Q2 selloff driven by Hock Tan's decision not to raise the $100B full-year AI chip revenue target; TSMC results and sector sentiment are the path to continued recovery or renewed pressure
• SMCI — Down 36% over the past 30 days on regulatory scrutiny tied to its Taiwan operations; unveiled new Kubernetes Edge AI appliances this week; stabilizing but high-risk ahead of any further regulatory news
• MSFT — 4,800 job cuts announced (Xbox + sales units, game studio divestitures); watch for investor reaction to what it signals about enterprise software recalibration and AI-driven workforce restructuring

Anthropic & OpenAI — IPO watch (not publicly traded): Anthropic confidentially filed its S-1 with the SEC in early June at a reported $965B valuation, citing a $47B revenue run rate driven in part by Claude Code adoption; it's tracking toward a late-2026 debut. OpenAI filed its own confidential S-1 on June 9 but is said to be weighing a delay into 2027 following SpaceX's rocky public debut. Both are watch items — no tradeable event this week.