Markets Week-Ahead
📅 AI Stocks Week-Ahead — Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM
Prior week recap: SPX +0.5% · NDX +0.9% · DJI +0.5%
A green week with an ugly finish. Nvidia's Wednesday-night blowout — $96.2B revenue, up 106% YoY — sent the stock up nearly 9% Thursday and carried the tape, but Friday's Jackson Hole keynote from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh flipped the mood: he called inflation "too high" with PCE running 4.1% annualized over six months, and September rate-hike odds spiked from ~35% to the mid-to-high 50s. Notably, the SMH semi ETF still finished down more than 3% on the week — Nvidia's beat didn't lift the boats.
Sunday futures: S&P ~-0.2% · Nasdaq ~-0.3% · Dow ~-0.1% (directionally confirmed; exact magnitudes are my estimate)
US Central Command struck Iranian rocket launchers Sunday that were staging mines for the Strait of Hormuz, ending several weeks of calm. Brent for November pushed above $90 and WTI is near $86 — crude up about 2% at the open. Dollar firm, yields firm, futures modestly lower. Energy strength on top of a hawkish Fed is not the combination growth multiples like.
Earnings this week:
• Tuesday, September 1 — MDB (MongoDB, after close; consensus ~$1.61 EPS on ~$735M), PANW, MDT, NIO
• Wednesday, September 2 — SNOW (Snowflake, after close; consensus ~$0.45 EPS on ~$1.48B), AI (C3.ai), DLTR
• Thursday, September 3 — AVGO (Broadcom, fiscal Q3, after close; consensus ~$29.4B revenue), DELL, LULU, ZS
• Friday, September 4 — BABA
Broadcom is the week. RBC frames the whole debate as whether management raises the fiscal 2027 AI semiconductor outlook, which has been parked at "in excess of $100 billion" for two straight calls.
Economic calendar:
• Tuesday, September 1 — ISM Manufacturing (Aug) and JOLTS (Jul): openings expected to slip to ~7.27M from 7.36M. First read on whether labor demand is still cooling.
• Wednesday, September 2 — ADP Employment (Aug), Factory Orders, Fed Beige Book
• Thursday, September 3 — ISM Services (Aug), jobless claims, Challenger layoffs, trade balance
• Friday, September 4 — August Nonfarm Payrolls: +60K expected after July's -23K, unemployment seen ticking up to 4.2% from 4.1%, wages +0.2% m/m. This is the last major labor print before the September 16 decision.
Fed events:
• Tuesday, September 1 — Barr speaks: watch for whether the hawkish Warsh framing is a consensus view or a chair's view.
• Thursday, September 3 — Waller speaks: historically the dove; if he softens on hikes, that's the tell.
• Wednesday, September 2 — Beige Book: regional color on pricing power heading into the meeting.
• No FOMC this week — the decision lands Wednesday, September 16 at 2:00 PM ET.
Watchlist catalysts:
• AVGO — Thursday, September 3 after the close. The single biggest AI event of the week. VMware Explore runs Aug 31–Sep 3 in Vegas, so software commentary collides with the print.
• SNOW — Wednesday, September 2 after the close. AI-consumption read-through for the data layer.
• MDB — Tuesday, September 1 after the close. Same theme, different substrate.
• NVDA — no earnings, but it's the sentiment carrier. Watch whether Thursday's post-print gains hold or keep bleeding like they did Friday.
• AMD, TSM, ASML, ARM, SMCI, MU — no reports, but all trade off the AVGO tape Friday. Micron's own print isn't until late September.
• PLTR, SOUN, IONQ, BBAI — no catalysts; these are the highest-duration names on the list and the most rate-sensitive into Friday's payrolls.
• Anthropic / OpenAI — not tradeable, watch item only. Anthropic filed confidentially June 1 and is reportedly pitching a raise of up to $100B at roughly a $2T valuation, with forecasters penciling a listing around late October. OpenAI filed June 8. Any pricing headline reprices the whole private-AI comp set.